By Peter Sachs
Q: Is Fidel Castro going to die? What happens then-will I be able to get Cuban cigars? -Seth, Pennsylvania
A: Cuban leader Fidel Castro's health has been on the down-and-down for at least the last few days, but it's hard for anyone to say how much time he has left-or what will happen if he dies.
It was no big surprise when Castro, who turns 80 later this month, temporarily handed over power to his younger brother Raul, who is 75 (remember, younger is relative), after the elder Castro had surgery for intestinal bleeding. Raul has been Castro's rumored successor for a while, but Cuba's Communist Party is being deliberately vague about the transition process.
If Raul is 75, then he probably won't be around very long either...the future after that is anyone's guess. The Communist Party could appoint another official to lead the nation, or-as many Cuban Americans and government officials here are hoping-Cuba could take a good long hit from the Democracy Blunt and start shifting toward the form of government that gives you warm fuzzies and a souvenir sticker every time you vote.
For the time being, it will take a lot more than a simple handover of power to change America's relations with the communist island. For one, a 1996 law lets our president completely lift travel and trade restrictions only if someone other than Fidel or Raul is in power. We've made a few exceptions for getting food into the country, and Cuba trades tobacco and nickel with some other nations in the Western Hemisphere.
Not everyone thinks Cuba's communism is a bad thing. Some Europeans like Castro both for his personal charisma and for standing up against President Bush-and the nine presidents before him, the London Independent recently pointed out.
We'll save the discussion of the philosophical merits of communism as conceived by Karl Marx for a college class somewhere, but let's just say that scholars and political scientists alike largely agree that it doesn't work as it should in practice. Yep, Cuba has pretty sweet universal health care and education, but there is no free press or political dissent allowed, crushing poverty is rampant, and there's a pretty "efficient" police mechanism to take care of anyone the government doesn't like. You could snub out your cigar (or start a very large paper fire) in the pile of human rights abuses that international organizations like Human Rights Watch have documented. (Then again, the U.S. hasn't done too well, according to those same groups, when it comes to our prison for suspected terrorists at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.)
About those cigars: You might be able to get them eventually, but put away your cigar cutters for the moment. Remember those trade restrictions I mentioned? They limit cigars, too, so our government will have to change things up to get the cigars rolling into your humidor.