By Peter Sachs
Q: Why is this year's hurricane season so much calmer than last year's? Wasn't this year supposed to be just as bad?
A: While early forecasts put the number of hurricanes around the same level as last year, a rough indicator of how bad the season will be, newer estimates have put this year's season back in the "average" category.
In May, the National Hurricane Center, the government agency that tracks the lumbering oceanic beasts, predicted 8 to 10 hurricanes, which they downgraded to between 7 and 9 hurricanes in early August. Compare that with 2005's record 15 hurricanes and 28 named storms.
So far this year we're only had a handful of named storms, and they have all died far out at sea. At this time in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita had struck, and there had been 10 named storms before them.
(The distinction between named tropical storms and hurricanes is all about wind speed. Tropical storms have winds between 39 and 73 miles per hour, while hurricanes must have maximum winds of 74 miles per hour or more.)
But don't get too comfortable laying out on the beach like nothing is going to happen.
"All it takes is that one hurricane to make for a bad year," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield was quoted as saying to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
September and October are historically the peak months for hurricanes (the season officially ends on November 1), so there is plenty of time for a destructive storm to form.
The underlying cause for the difference so far between this year and last is how hot the Atlantic Ocean is. The warmer the water, the more easily hurricanes can form and grow, as long as the winds are favorable as well. Last year, huge swaths of the Atlantic between Africa and Florida were above 85 degrees, but right now there is only a narrow warm band stretching across the ocean. That means that storms that form can be blown over cooler water, where they have difficulty maintaining their strength.
The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are still darn toasty, with sea surface temperatures above 90 degrees. So if a storm makes it that far, there is a good chance it could grow really fast and turn into an ugly monster, just like Katrina.
If there's one takeaway message, it's this, according to the hurricane center's Mayfield: don't get complacent. Just because there hasn't been much hurricane activity yet does not mean it will stay calm for the rest of the year.